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On the other matter, that of the loss on
transactions in rice, it is even more difficult to hazard an opinion at this stage. It is possible that the amount will run up to two million dollars; it is not probable that it will fall below one million. Any figure between those two extremes is, on present indications, as likely as mother. I think, however, that this loss arising out of the necessity of coping with a crisis due to unusual causes is a fair charge against accrued balances so that any deficit on the year's estimates caused by its inclusion may be regarded with equanimity. I would also point out that many of the items included in the large programme of Public Works are works of development, a number of which will be almost immediately remunerative. These works also appear to be a fair charge on accrued balances, in the absence of which it would in my opinion have been justifiable, if the market conditions had been favourable, to provide for them by raising a lom.
7.
In taking what may appear to be an optimistic view of the general financial position I have not overlooked the possibility of the Colony being deprived of the very large part of its revenue which it derives from the
Opium Monopoly. It will be observed that I warned the Council
in sperking on the second reading of the Ordinace that we must reckon on losing the revenue from this source in the near future and also that we have made a beginning by estimating for a reduction of $1,500,000 or 20 per centum in next year's opium revenue as compared with this year's. It seems to me, however, that this matter canot be regarded as one of immediacy. Until China ceases to grow and to con- sume enormous quantities of opium (and all recent ac counte from His Majesty's Consuls point to the fact that both cultivation and consumption are actually increasing) it woul d be useless for this Colony to abandon its present system, as
the only result would be that the consumer would be
supplied
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